Market Pulse
The Fed, rates, inflation, jobs and the policy decisions moving US markets.
AI-generated imageThe incoming Democratic majority could use the borrowing limit to seek concessions from President Donald Trump. Wall Street estimates put the deadline for meeting all federal obligations in late 2027.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.898% as traders weighed Democratic midterm victories and an 8% drop in crude oil futures.
A new CNBC survey shows President Trump's economic approval rating at a record low, with widespread economic pessimism and Democrats gaining an edge ahead of the midterms.
At IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, global finance leaders shifted their focus from China to mounting fiscal risks, the impact of artificial intelligence, and renewed geopolitical flashpoints.
UK annual inflation rose to 3.5% in September, led by rising motor fuel costs. Markets now largely expect two Bank of England rate hikes before year-end.
Citi analysts argue that interest rates now influence economic growth more than stock market valuations, reflecting structural market shifts.
Rising Treasury yields and a swelling federal deficit are straining U.S. borrowing costs, with no clear political solution in sight.
The U.S. budget deficit surged to $1.992 trillion for fiscal 2026, a 12% increase, as Social Security, Medicare, and debt interest climbed further.
Medicare Advantage Options to Shrink in 2027 as Insurers Scale Back Coverage
Two bills in Congress would end the federal government’s power to garnish up to 15% of Social Security benefits for defaulted student loans. About 9.6 million borrowers age 50 and older hold nearly $457 billion in student debt.
Wages rose 0.13% in September while prices rose an estimated 0.53%, erasing two years of real pay gains. A MarketWatch column compares the energy shock to the 1970s, when the S&P 500 beat inflation by just 4% over the whole decade.
Former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan says markets pricing in at least three more hikes by mid-June are going too far. He backs a December hike after an October pause, which would leave rates at 4% to 4.25%, near neutral.
The dollar-yen rate is close to a “death cross” after breaking a 17-month uptrend, a sign that the U.S.-Japan push for a stronger yen may be working. Oppenheimer’s Ari Wald sees a possible test of 152, near the 2026 lows.
