Trump’s Economic Approval Plummets Ahead of Midterms as Pessimism Widens, CNBC Poll Finds

Recent polling from CNBC finds President Donald Trump’s economic approval rating at an all-time low as midterm elections approach. According to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, 65% of Americans now disapprove of Trump’s economic management, a record for either of his two terms. This deepening dissatisfaction with the economy creates new challenges for Republican candidates in the final stretch before the vote.

Declining Confidence Across the Board

The survey points to widespread economic unease. Eight in ten Americans rate the current economy as either fair or poor, the highest percentage since December 2023. While economic pessimism has persisted among Democrats and independents, a notable shift has occurred among Republicans: 35% now express a negative outlook on the economy, up 6 points since July, according to the poll. Historically, Republican voters have tended to maintain comparatively positive views during Trump’s presidency, but that margin has narrowed, reflecting a broader sense of unease.

The polling suggests that this erosion of confidence is not driven solely by Trump’s opponents. Even among traditionally supportive constituencies, optimism about economic conditions is faltering. According to Republican pollster Micah Roberts, the recent negative shift among Republican respondents represents a significant departure from their usual trend during Trump’s tenure.

Headwinds for GOP Candidates

Political ramifications of economic sentiment are visible in preferences for Congressional control. The survey shows registered voters favoring Democratic control of Congress by a 52% to 45% margin, extending the Democratic lead by 3 points since July. This preference is reinforced in critical battlegrounds: across eight states with competitive Senate races, which Trump carried in the last presidential election, voters now lean Democratic by 4 points.

Engagement among key groups also favors Democrats. Seventy-two percent of Democrats report high interest in the midterms, compared with just 62% of Republicans. Women, who have higher than average engagement, prefer Democratic Congressional control by a margin of 22 points. Independents, who often sway close contests, favor Democrats by a 49% to 33% split.

Issues Driving Voter Sentiment

Economic worries headline the list of voter concerns. The cost of food and groceries now tops the issues that voters most want addressed, with 34% citing it, ahead of gasoline prices. The Democrats lead Republicans by 16 points on handling the cost of food, up from a 7-point advantage in the July survey. Corruption also remains top of mind, identified as the principal concern by 36% of those polled, with Democrats holding a modest edge over Republicans on addressing it.

Other issues where Democrats are viewed more favorably include protecting democracy as well as jobs and unemployment, which flipped from a 2-point Republican advantage to a 5-point Democratic advantage. The Republican advantage on immigration and border security persists, though it has narrowed, dropping from a 15-point lead to 9 points.

The public also remains divided on the value of the Iran war, with just 46% believing the military action was worth it to disrupt Iran's nuclear capabilities, down from 53% in April.

Trump’s overall approval rating has remained largely stable, at 40% approving and 59% disapproving, even as net negative sentiment about the economy intensifies. His current net approval of -19 percentage points compares with -8 a year ago. More striking is the sharp 9-point drop in net economic approval from the previous survey in July: approval fell to 34% from 38%, and disapproval rose to 65% from 60%. The net -31 economic approval is the lowest of either of Trump’s two terms.

Both pollsters cited in the CNBC survey describe the electorate as highly engaged but foresee movement toward Democrats as somewhat concentrated rather than a broad realignment. Democratic gains rely on consolidating core supporters and attracting independents frustrated with Trump’s economic record.

Corruption and rising prices remain at the core of voter anxieties. Taken together, concern about the cost of food, gas, and housing is now the top concern for 57% of survey respondents. Eighty percent say prices are rising, with 55% stating they are rising faster than usual, both metrics up 5 points versus a year ago.

The combination of economic dissatisfaction and shifts in issue preferences points to the hurdles Republicans face in the closing days before the midterms, as measured by the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.