Debt and AI Take Center Stage as China Fades from Global Finance Chiefs' Risk Radar

For years, China’s economic trajectory and U.S.-China tensions dominated discussions among the world’s finance ministers and central bankers. At the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, that narrative shifted. Financial sector leaders spent less time on China and focused instead on rising public debt, the implications of artificial intelligence, and renewed geopolitical pressures, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

China Takes a Backseat

In 2018, during the U.S.-China trade war, Chinese growth and policy missteps were central to IMF discussions. By 2026, that anxiety receded. Tim Adams, president and CEO of the Institute of International Finance, told CNBC that conversations now treat China as “any other risk rather than something unique and special.” Adams noted that the perceived stabilization of U.S.-China relations has led investors to treat China as a more routine global risk. He described the relationship as “stable and solid, without much visible tension beyond the nagging set of issues that have been around for some time.” Adams also observed persistent reluctance among investors to commit direct investment to China, but noted interest in Chinese tech IPOs and bonds, with the yuan described as stable to slightly stronger.

Mounting Debt and Policy Divergence

While China’s influence faded from the spotlight, advanced economies' public debt became a primary concern. The IMF stated that strong growth alone will not put the United States on a sustainable fiscal path, with federal government debt now above $40 trillion. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called for credible fiscal changes, while U.S. Treasury counselor David Zervos dismissed the Fund’s warnings by questioning the reliability of past IMF forecasts. The divide showed a lack of fiscal policy coordination.

Chinese and U.S. finance officials were seated apart at the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Bangkok, according to CNBC. Chinese central bank Governor Pan Gongsheng told the International Monetary and Financial Committee that China supports stronger IMF monitoring of spillovers from “major advanced economies’ fiscal risks.” Pan said deficit countries should address their fiscal imbalances, while surplus countries should boost consumption and investment.

The IMF also flagged that the AI infrastructure boom is contributing to rising debt, with borrowing by governments and companies competing for capital and pushing up costs. Kevin Gallagher of Boston University's Global Development Policy Center cited risks if the IMF, Federal Reserve, and People’s Bank of China fail to coordinate their policies. The IMF further warned of potential severe economic consequences globally if AI technology does not produce the expected productivity gains.

Geopolitical Tensions Return: Ukraine and Russia

The Russia-Ukraine conflict returned as a central topic in the Bangkok meetings. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attended in person, drawing criticism from European leaders including Germany’s finance minister Lars Klingbeil. Nearly half of International Monetary and Financial Committee delegates walked out during Siluanov’s address. Ukraine’s central bank chief, Andriy Pyshnyi, told Reuters he was surprised by the large number of finance officials who expressed solidarity with Ukraine, calling it a “deep and emotional moment.”

After a three-hour meeting, the Group of Seven announced 260 million euros (about $300 million) in funding for Ukraine to repair infrastructure at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, with expectations to increase this at a donor conference in Paris next month. The IMF warned that rising public debt is squeezing governments’ room to spend on priorities such as defense.

The AI Question: Opportunity and Risk

AI emerged as a core topic of optimism and caution. The IMF projected stronger growth for economies tied to the global AI supply chain—such as South Korea, Japan, and China—while warning that AI could widen gaps between economies. The uncertainty over whether AI will deliver on its promised productivity gains, combined with increased borrowing, may present new risks to global financial stability if expectations fall short.

As public debt, technological disruption, and geopolitical disputes take precedence for the world’s finance chiefs, China’s profile in global risk discussions has become less distinctive.