Forecast Suggests US Stock Ownership Could Fall to 54% by 2030—Sector Shifts in Focus

The share of American adults who own stocks has started to slip, and one market commentator expects the decline to continue through the end of the decade. In a column published Sept. 23 by The Motley Fool and carried by Yahoo Finance, contributor James Brumley predicted that stock ownership will fall from 58% of U.S. adults today to 54% by 2030. He named technology, and specifically the artificial-intelligence trade, as the main driver.

The forecast is one writer's view, not a survey result. The starting point, however, comes from Gallup.

What the data shows now

In Gallup's April 2026 survey, 58% of U.S. adults said they own stocks, either individually or through mutual funds. That was down from 62% a year earlier. Brumley puts the current number of American stockholders at about 156 million. His 54% projection would leave roughly 147 million by 2030, a figure he says already accounts for population growth of less than 1%.

A 54% reading would match 2017, when ownership was rising from 52% in 2016. It would be the lowest level since then.

Brumley attributes the recent decline to two factors: AI-linked stocks that look less promising than they did, and inflation that has pushed some households to spend more on groceries and gasoline, leaving less to invest.

Why the AI trade sits at the center

The argument rests on how many new investors arrived through AI stocks. Brumley cites J.P. Morgan analysts who estimated that retail investors put roughly $300 billion of new cash into U.S. stocks last year. That was more than 50% above the 2024 total and above the 2021 peak of $270 billion. He also notes that almost six in 10 investors now hold at least one AI-linked stock, with a higher share among Gen Z and millennials, the groups that make up much of the market's newer investor base.

That concentration cuts both ways. Investors who entered for one theme may leave if the theme stops paying off. Brumley points out that shares of Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), two of the trade's leaders, had barely moved since May at the time of writing. He also says investors have grown concerned that planned spending on AI infrastructure may not pay for itself.

Margin debt and valuations

Two other measures in the column bear on how fragile current ownership might be.

The first is borrowing. Margin balances, the money brokerage clients borrow to buy more stock, reached a record $1.4 trillion as of August, according to FINRA data Brumley cites. Leverage amplifies losses as well as gains. When prices fall, investors can face margin calls that force them to add cash or sell. Brumley argues that such a reckoning tends to push newer investors out of the market for a period, and he expects one "sooner rather than later."

The second is valuation. Brumley writes that by some inflation-adjusted measures the S&P 500 is valued near a three-decade high. Vanguard and J.P. Morgan both project average annual returns of 6% to 7% for the index over the next 10 years or more, which he describes as subpar. In his view, some investors will move money to alternatives such as private investments, real estate and cryptocurrency rather than stop investing altogether.

The counterpoints and what to watch

Brumley frames the decline as part of a cycle rather than a lasting break. He says he is not predicting a crash, and he acknowledges that continued AI adoption could keep the sector's stocks rising or revive the ones that have stalled. He compares the current mix of debt-funded buying, fear of missing out and rising interest rates to the periods before the 1999 and 2007 market peaks, while allowing that this time may differ.

The forecast can be checked against data released on a regular schedule:

• Gallup's next April survey on stock ownership, which will show whether the drop from 62% to 58% continues.
• FINRA's monthly margin statistics, which track whether borrowing keeps rising from the $1.4 trillion record or begins to unwind.
• The performance of AI leaders such as Nvidia and Alphabet, and their next quarterly reports on AI infrastructure spending.